AgriCharts Market Commentary

Corn

Corn futures closed sharply lower Friday. Commodity prices had a mostly down week as nearby corn futures lost 36 cents since last week. Funds weighed in on prices as they were sellers of an estimated 8,000 contracts. Funds are still liquidating and open interest fell nearly 4,500 contracts on Thursday. Weather remains bearish, rains help finish most crop plants and frost threats are not in the forecast for then next week, both pushed prices lower. USDA released export sales early this morning: 200,200 tonnes for 07/08 and 389,400 for 08/09. 251 deliveries were issued against the September contract. Allendale released their estimates of 152.48 bu. per acre with total production of 12.09 billion bushels; trade shrugged off the lower estimates than what USDA reported in August. Sep -17 ¾ at 5.31 ½

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed down sharply on spillover selling pressure from other grains and outside markets. Soybeans were off for the week as well, losing $1.56 in nearby September since last Friday. Funds were heavy sellers Friday selling an estimated 8,00-9,000 contracts of beans. Rains in most Corn Belt regions benefited pod filling and is weighing in on prices. South Korea bought 110,000 tonnes for 08/09 delivery. Allendale Inc pegged bean yield at 38.43 bushels per acre and total production of 2.818 billion bushels. Fundamentals may not be trading much in commodities as large index funds are packing up and taking money off the table. Sep -54 at 11.80 Meal -144 at 341.00 BO -135 at 48.18

Wheat

Wheat futures lost over 25 cents in nearby September contracts at CBOT, KCBOT, and MGEX. Long Liquidation and technical selling was responsible for the collapse in wheat Friday. Funds sold an estimated 4,000 contracts in CHI. CBOT wheat has extremely wide basis for the last couple of months. Carry in the market has allowed traders to continuously roll contracts holding that basis wide with large supplies. CME Group is now recommending changes to those contracts such as: higher storage rates, increased delivery points and lower vomitoxin levels. The September contract was pressured by large deliveries issued (1,230). Sep CHI -25 ½ at 7.29 ¾ KC -27 ¼ at 7.73 MPLS -31 at 8.03

Cattle

Cattle futures closed lower and lost over $1/cwt on the week but some traders feel that a fundamental bottom may be near. Cash cattle traded below expectations in Nebraska from $153-155. Economic slow downs and unemployment reaching 6.1% has consumers pinched at the wallet again! Exports remain a highlight livestock relieving domestic supply and supporting most contracts. Afternoon Boxes: Choice -11 at $158.30 Select +05 at $152.15. Oct -35 at 102.95 Sep FC +35 at 111.12

Hogs

Hogs closed higher as October/December was a spread favorite. Despite lower cash hogs for most of the week some markets were firmer Friday and are called steady to higher next week. Declines in corn futures pushed deferred contracts lower. US and Mexico are working to work safety issues out in pork plants home and abroad. The CME Index was down $1.46 at $74.43/cwt. The lean pork cutout continues to leak lower, off 72 cent to settle at $77.20/cwt on Thursday. Large slaughter is still scheduled for tomorrow in order to make up for Monday’s holiday. Oct +40 at 69.42 Feb PB -132 at 86.10

Cotton

Cotton futures plunged lower to close near limit down in nearby cotton as global economic concerns build. Exports were bleak last week and are backing global economic slow down. Uptrend in the dollar is making exports more expensive and bearish to cotton. Short covering ahead of this weekend’s hurricane weighed in as well. Cotton broke through support levels of around 66 cents to push lower around 63 cents in nearby October. Hurricane Ike weakened to a Cat 3 but is expected to increase back to status of a 4 and make landfall. Oct -272 at 63.26.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: www.bruglermktg.com